Top scores, thinning tape.

The S&P added 0.94% across five sessions and closed Friday with eighteen consecutive sessions above its 50-day moving average. SPY sits six percent above the 50-day and seven-and-a-half above the 200-day, with the 200-day's slope still positive. The Trend reading is at the 94th percentile of our two-year window. The Follow-Through Day from March 31 is still active under classical CANSLIM rules — 22 trading days into its 30-day validity window, with eight sessions left to either confirm or expire. By trend alone, the regime reads constructive.

But the composite Stance barely moved. It opened the week at 63 and closed at 64, a single point of drift around the boundary into the constructive band — the band reading is two days old. Trend climbed five points, Macro climbed seven, Breadth fell six, Leadership ticked up one. The index's gain was paid for inside the dashboard by a rotation, not a regime upgrade. SPY's volume came in at 58% of its trailing 50-day average — a 0.94% advance moved on roughly three-fifths of normal participation. And under the surface, the McClellan oscillator dropped from +79 to +19 in five sessions. The trend ran. The breadth oscillator slid out from under it.

Three subscores hold the top decile: Stance, Breadth, and Trend each at the 90th percentile or better. Leadership at the 59th is the lone hold-out — the subscore value has bounced in the low-30s to mid-40s for the past three weeks. Macro at the 35th climbed seven points off a softer base — Fed funds is still at its 2-year low and HY spreads sit at the 17th percentile. The 35-point gap between Trend (94th) and Leadership (59th) is wide. In our 501 trading days of history, this configuration — top-decile Trend with sub-60th Leadership — has printed on 22 days, about 4.4% of all sessions. Today is the 22nd. Of the 18 prior anchors with sixty sessions of forward data behind them, SPY closed green 13 times at +60d for an average return of +0.62%, and 15 of 18 were green at +20d for an average of +1.73%. The pattern is not a sell signal. It is a slow-drift signal — modestly positive forward returns with most prints green, but no large average payoff and a non-trivial five-of-eighteen chance the +60d window finishes red.

The picture above is what the divergence looks like in trajectory form. Trend (gold) climbed from the low-20s about five weeks ago to 73 by Friday — almost a vertical run by subscore standards. Breadth (green) tracked it through the middle of April, peaked at 88, and faded to 72. Leadership (orange) is the flat line — pinned between the low-30s and mid-40s for the past three weeks, after a brief touch of the 60s about five weeks back. Macro (gray) lifted off its lows and has held above the 50-midline for about four weeks after crossing in early April. The composite barely budges at 64 — the weighted blend of a +5 Trend gain, a +7 Macro gain, and a -6 Breadth drop nets to one point on the Stance scale.

We pull every prior session in our two-year history where the five-vector reading sits within striking distance of today, weighting Stance more heavily. The closest match is May 15, 2024 at distance 11.2 — a tight one. Forward returns chart below; the highlighted line is the closest by Euclidean distance.

All four analogs ended green at +60 days, with returns from +0.66% to +7.88%. Three of four were green at +20. At +10 the cluster is shallow: only the May 2024 match was meaningfully red (-1.35%), and the other three printed within a percent of flat. The July 2025 match was still red at +20 (-0.58%) before turning green by +60 (+6.13%). The pattern across the four is consistent — top-decile-trend-with-median-leadership reads chop in the first two weeks, then resolve up. None of the four broke down outright. The high-importance week of releases starting Thursday lands inside that early-chop window.

Energy held #1 again this week with RS at +0.18 — the strongest positive read on the board. Tech held #2 at +0.10. Industrials and Materials held #3 and #4 unchanged, with both barely positive at +0.02. Real Estate climbed one rank from 7 to 6, swapping with Communications which slipped from 6 to 7. Health Care moved up from 11 to 10 and Financials dropped from 10 to 11 — Financials is the new bottom rank. Of eleven sectors, four carry positive RS scores (Energy, Tech, Industrials, Materials) and seven read negative. The risk-on shape is intact, but only the top two sectors carry meaningfully positive relative strength — the rest sit close to flat or negative.

On the industry board, Semiconductors holds #1 across the 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month rankings — eight consecutive sessions at 1m #1 — and sits at #3 on the 1-week. Electrical Equipment sits at #2 on 1m (climbed from 6-month #10), Computer Hardware at #3 across all three of 1m, 3m, and 6m. The biggest 6m → 1w moves on the magnitude leaderboard are all drops: Lab Equipment fell 25 ranks (#9 → #34), Rubber & Plastics fell 24 ranks (#5 → #29), Steel fell 12 (#7 → #19). The largest climber is Entertainment, up 11 ranks (#19 → #8). Construction also emerged on the short horizon, climbing eight ranks from #13 to #5 — flagged by the shifts engine as a new cohort even though it sits below the magnitude top-four. The top-25 leadership board saw heavy churn this week — fifteen entered and fifteen exited — but the persistent group (names on three or more horizons) numbers seventeen. The headline turnover and the underneath durability are both true at once: the names changing slots are the ones marginally on the board; the core stays.

Top six on the leadership board, ranked by the multi-factor composite (alpha 50%, volume 25%, 52-week proximity 15%, trend smoothness 10%). LWLG jumped forty-seven ranks to #1 — the biggest single-week climb on the page — and AXTI climbed twenty-eight to #2. AAOI slipped one to #3, VIAV climbed three to #4, BAND held #5 unchanged, and NOK climbed fifteen to #6. The factor bars on each card decompose what is earning the rank — trend smoothness (left), 52-week proximity (middle), volume velocity (right). Five of the six (LWLG, AXTI, AAOI, VIAV, NOK) print all three factors in the top decile of the eligible universe; BAND carries smoothness in the eighth decile while proximity and volume hold in the top tier. Three of the six (AXTI, AAOI, VIAV) are pure semiconductors; LWLG sits in photonics-adjacent plastics; NOK is networking equipment. The leadership board is concentrating in the chip-and-comms stack — even as the industry-board's headline Semiconductors holds #1 on 1m/3m/6m, the per-stock leaders confirm the same theme from the bottom up.

The Leadership subscore — a different composite from the per-stock board above — breaks into five sub-signals that measure breadth of leadership across the market, not the strength of any individual name. Equal-weight versus cap-weight reads -0.038 today, worsening from -0.008 a week ago — a clean -0.03 of widening underperformance from the equal-weight basket. Tech-versus-S&P extended to +0.063 from +0.022 — that is the single largest sub-signal mover this week and the main reason the Leadership subscore did not fall outright. Cyclicals-versus-defensives sit barely negative at -0.003, a hair off the zero line. Sector RS dispersion held at +0.364, unchanged week-over-week. Small-versus-large barely moved at +0.022. The Leadership subscore reads median because tech-versus-S&P is doing the lifting; equal-weight failure is dragging. The signature is mega-cap-led — broadly the inverse of a rotation.

The volume regime tag printed 'churning' on Friday with UDVR at 1.20× and the McClellan oscillator at +19, down from +79 five sessions earlier. The week-over-week regime tag matches — 'churning' both Friday and the prior — but the streak counter reads one day, meaning the tag flipped out and back across the five sessions. That is a high-noise tape: heavy two-way flow without persistent character. Friday's broad-universe pass clustered 100 names through heavy-buying signatures, 81 through climactic-volume, and 37 through quiet-contraction setups underneath. Then the calendar takes over. Jobless Claims hits Thursday at 8:30 ET and Payrolls Friday at the same — both high-importance, both in the labor category. The Fed already sits at the 0th percentile of our two-year cuts cycle; a weak labor print is the soft-landing confirmation. A hot one is the asymmetric risk into a rally already top-decile on Trend. Construction Spending and the Nat Gas Storage Report also print Thursday at medium importance, alongside routine Treasury bill auctions.

Fed funds at 3.64% sits at the 0th percentile of our two-year window — today's reading is the 2-year low for this dataset. HY credit spreads at 2.77% sits at the 17th percentile, compressed and tight. The 10y-2y curve has normalized to +51 basis points. VIX at 17 is dead-median. Each, alone, is constructive. Together they are the soft-landing read in chart form.

HY spreads at the 17th percentile is the data point with the most asymmetric downside on the dashboard. There is more room for spreads to widen than to tighten from here. We do not predict a widening; we just note that when it comes, it comes fast. With two high-importance labor releases on the calendar this week — Jobless Claims Thursday and Payrolls Friday — the test of whether HY can hold the 17th percentile is in front of us, not behind.

1. 01Payrolls Friday upside surprise — consensus prints land at 8:30 ET. The dashboard's 0th-percentile Fed funds reading and 17th-percentile HY spread both price the cuts cycle and the soft landing. A hot NFP is the cleanest single data point that would force a re-rating of every macro input on the dashboard at once.
2. 02McClellan oscillator under -50 — currently at +19, down from +79 a week ago. Below zero is broad participation deterioration; below -50 is washout-territory and historically corresponds to Stance dropping a band. A continued slide is the breadth-confirms-trend-reversal signal.
3. 03equal-vs-cap-weight under -0.05 — currently at -0.038, worsening week-over-week (was -0.008). Further widening confirms the cap-weight-only character of the rally and increases the odds the 'narrow leadership' label sticks for another week.
4. 04Distribution days ≥ 5 in the past 25 sessions. We are at 3 — up from 2 a week ago. A fifth or sixth before the FTD's 30-day validity expires would cancel the March-31 confirmation under classical CANSLIM rules.